The Throne Room

Wild Wild West

So, as promised I thought I would post some predictions for the Western Conference. I’ll leave the prognosis of the East to someone who writes about an East team, with the exception of some season predictions for the SCF, etc.

Handicapping the West:
15. St. Louis
This is, simply put, an organization going nowhere fast. They lack building blocks for the future or veteran superstars to lead. Look for the Blues to have a lottery pick in the 2009 NHL draft. If not for the fact that three East teams (Toronto, Tampa Bay and Atlanta) will be the worst in the league this year I’d say the Blues have a shot at winning the Hedman/Tavares sweepstakes.

14. Colorado
Yes, Jow Sakic is coming back and the Avalanche have a couple of budding stars on offense in Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski as well as the always dangerous Milan Hejduk. The Avs biggest weakness is in what is likely the weakest goaltending tandem in the league. Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft aren’t going to get in to the heads of many of the opposition’s forwards. It’s going to be a long year in the Rockies.

13. Columbus
The only team in the NHL never to qualify for the playoffs will get to keep that title this season. Columbus overachieved a bit in Ken Hitchock’s defense-first system last year, but they lack the key players to be terribly effective over a full season, especially on defense where Mike Commodore and Rostislav Klesla figure to be their top two. Both are journeymen and marginal contributors at best. Having a superstar in Rick Nash and an improved goaltender (last year anyway) in Pascal Leclaire won’t be enough to get the Blue Jackets over the .500 mark for the first time in their history.

12. Vancouver
It’s a shame that the best goalie in the NHL right now, Roberto Luongo is going to be forced to play with a skeleton crew in front of him for the 2008-09 season. While Luongo may well win the Vezina trophy as the league’s best goaltender this season, it will be a long year for the Canucks, who lost much in free agency and didn’t bring much back in return. It will be interesting to see if GM Mike Gillis decides to gut the team and rebuild, or try to maintain the status quo. Will be interesting to see what happens with the Sedin twins and Luongo approaching free agency.

11. Phoenix
The trendy pick as “most improved team in the West”, but nothing about the Coyotes sends chills down my spine save Ilya Bryzgalov in goal, who gives that team a chance to win every night. GM Don Maloney made a great move getting Olli Jokinen from Florida, but he gave up two of the teams better defensemen in Keiith Ballard and Nick Boynton. The team should get better but some of the teams unlikely young heroes last season (Peter Mueller, Martin Hanzal) will have to prove themselves not a fluke.

10. Los Angeles
It’s been a rough road recently for the Kings, but building through the draft is starting to pay dividends in Hollywood. With a lineup full of young stars like Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Jack Johnson and the recently re-signed Patrick O’Sullivan there is cause for at least a little optimism. If half the young guys in the lineup play to 80% of their potential, this team could be dangerous. The defense will be young and inexperienced, but 2008 first round (2nd overall) pick Drew Doughty is the real deal and newcomers Matt Greene, Denis Gauthier and Sean O’Donnell will be serviceable if not solid. While the team is getting it’s feet wet early in the season, things could be a bit ugly, but new coach Terry Murray has the team buying into his system and the team appears ready to compete every night. The X factor here, as has been the case the past few seasons, is goaltending. If Jason LaBarbera and/or Erik Ersberg play just well enough to allow the team to have a chance to win, this team will be in contention until late in the season. If one or both have an oustanding year (or in one of the youngsters like Jonathan Bernier or Jon Quick comes up and takes the bit in their teeth), the team could shock the hockey world and make the playoffs. If goaltending remains the teams Achilles’ heel, the team could end up closer to the West’s cellar. I’m going to err on the side of optimism and say the team will improve but is probably a year away from the playoffs.

9. Nashville
Another team full of young, blue chip defensive prospects, Nashville will be a competitive team this season but will come up just short. If Dan Ellis has another banner season and proves he is worthy of number one status and the value of his new contract, the Predators will be in the playoff hunt until the end. If Ellis should falter, the Predators have nobody with NHL experience to fall back on. I expect Ellis to do fine but the team will have to find a way to score enough goals to win games.

8. Anaheim
With Phoenix and Los Angeles moving up the Pacific Division ranks, someone has to go the other way. I expect the Ducks to be a playoff team this season but salary cap trouble and the team’s penchant for taking ill advised penalties will catch up with them. If the team loses any of it’s key players to injury for a significant amount of time, they could easily fall from a playoff spot, too. After the Ducks’ Cup run in 2007, the league began to crack down on their “toe the line” style of physical play (I’m not going to suggest that Carlyle is a dirty coach and the Ducks are a dirty team, but you can do the math) and what was once their biggest asset became their biggest detriment. Simply put, the Ducks don’t have the speed, the skill or the discipline to keep up with the West’s frontrunners (and to stay out of the box when trying to do so). Look for Brian Burke to sell off a few of the team’s assets before he bolts for Toronto in 2009, too.

7. Edmonton
A slew of offseason acquisitions have the Oilers poised to make their first playoff appearance since they lost in 7 games to Carolina in the 2006 Stanley Cup Final. I see Mathieu Garon having a breakout year and overcoming the inconsistencies that have plagued him in the past, and Dwayne Roloson being dealt by the deadline. A first round matchup against Detroit will bring back memories of 2006 for the fans in Oil Country.

6. Chicago
Big offseason acquisitions Brian Campbell and Cristobal Huet will help the Blackhawks reach the 2008-09 postseason. With a slew of young promising forwards including Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Sharp, look for coach Denis Savard to lead the Hawks to their most successful season in years. The biggest question for the Blackhawks - where will Nikolai Khabibulin finish the season?

5. Minnesota
Jacques Lemaire is the master of defensive system coaching, and the Wild have the players on their roster to do it well, in addition to a very solid goaltending due in Nicklas Backstrom and Josh Harding. Minnesota will finish second in the Northwest and face Pacific Division runner-up Dallas in the first round of the playoffs.

4. Dallas
Last year’s deep playoff run for the Stars was no fluke. Dave Tippett has his team motivated and hungry. Look for Marty Turco to have a banner year in the Stars’ net and look for agitators Sean Avery and Steve Ott to make this the team people least like playing against. Dallas will be in a neck and neck race for the division and will fall just short in the end to San Jose.

3. Calgary
Let’s face it, on paper the Flames look damn good. They added more scoring in the offseason acquiring Michael Cammalleri from LA. They have the best young defenseman in the league in Dion Phaneuf, and they have one of the leagues absolute elite goalies in Mikka Kiprusoff. This team was robbed of a Cup in 2004 (Martin Gelinas’ “goal that never was” in game 6 of the finals) but has been somewhat of a playoff dissapointment since. Look for the Flames to turn up the heat and win the Northwest division this year, they could be considered a dark horse to represent the West in the Stanley Cup finals.

2. Detroit
If anyone ever had a good chance of repeating as Stanley Cup Champion, the Wings are close if not it. I don’t think that would surprise anyone, would it? Detroit will dominate in the Central division (where they can feast on St. Louis, Columbus and Nashville each 6 times during the season). Last year the Red Wings lucked out with a light travel schedule in the playoffs but don’t expect the stars to align for them again. They are the defending champs and teams are shooting for them. Chris Osgood will have a great regular season but in the playoffs when teams are bringing the heat, he won’t be able to reproduce the magic of last season’s playoff run.

1. San Jose
Some expect a letdown in Teal Town with a new head coach and a number of big departures, but they have brought in some key replacements as well. Look for Dan Boyle to be a big contributor and it wouldn’t be too far fetched for Rob Blake to be more effective than his play the last couple of seasons on a team where he’s not expected to assume a leadership role or to play as many minutes. They have plenty of punch up front and an elite goaltender in Evgeni Nabokov. This is the year that San Jose emerges from the West.

Look for the Sharks to face the Montreal Canadiens in the Stanley Cup final. Les Habitants will beat the Sharks and bring the Stanley Cup back to Canada for the first time since 1993.

One more thought: I believe that an East team (Montreal) will win the Cup, and I think that the elite teams in the East are dangerous, but the East’s collection of also-ran teams will be for the ages. Toronto will be the worst team in the NHL in 2008-09, followed closely by Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the New York Islanders, Florida may not be far behind them. The worst team in the West might end up picking 4th, 5th or 6th at the draft in 2009.

Puck drops in North America in just about an hour. Thank God hockey season is back. Enjoy everyone!

-JS